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Monday, February 19, 2007

Sterling Outlook (19th February 2007)

Cable tumbled to a six-day low of 1.9433 during the London morning, on the back of the Treasury Select Committee's release of BoE MPC written evidence suggesting that some GBP depreciation will "probably be necessary" in order to cut the UK current account deficit. EUR/GBP simultaneously rose to a seven-week peak of 0.6756, with GBP/CHF falling to a six-week low just shy of 2.3980. GBP/JPY also lost value. The 106 page MPC report for the TSC can be accessed via www.publications.parliament.uk.

1.9420 (last Tuesday's NY session base) and 1.9400 are GBP/USD support points south of 1.9433. Sterling plumbed one-month lows just shy of 1.9400 last Tuesday, on the back of January's softer-than-expected UK inflation figures. 1.9466 (Friday's floor) is now a rebound resistance level. Upper obstacles include 1.9495 (today's Asian session base), 1.9530, and 1.9567 (today's Asian session peak). This week's key UK event risk is Wednesday's publication of minutes from the February 7/8 MPC meeting.

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