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Friday, February 23, 2007

Euro Outlook (23rd February 2007)

A steady trickle lower for the EUR this week but the price action has been disappointing. For want of any better reasons for the EUR's fall the US inflation data, stronger than expected, appears to have set the tone. Subdued price action has taken the EUR away from 1.3190 highs, reached on Tuesday, and tripped small stop loss orders on route to 1.3082 lows, Thursday.

The latest German IFO release had very little impact and was not worthy of the more optimistic in the market who were looking for a fresh injection of EUR/USD volatility. The main index fell in February to 107 from January's 107.9. There had been the usual market rumours, which straddled the actual result by quite a margin.

EUR/USD has been confined to a 1.3105 to 1.3130 range with the advantage held by the bears. In other news Trichet again hunted at higher rates by suggesting that EZ citizens want the ECB to do its job of ensuring price stability.

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