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Monday, February 12, 2007

Euro Outlook (12th February 2007)

The EUR/JPY fresh record high at 159.00 had offered the price some support but the subsequent failure and sell-off weighed. Offers from 1.3040 back to 1.3050 limited any thoughts of topside action, sales then increased on players returning to their previous long-USD positions. Spot eased and was soon testing the 1.30 mark and cable selling, in the wake of the soft PPI, added further weight.

Trading then began filling the support from 1.2990 back to 1.2980 before running the sub-1.2975 stops en route to 1.2950.Looking ahead, there is little data set for release into the North American session. However, if the markets take heart from the European theme then EUR/USD will again focus on the 1.2915 pre-G7 low.

Bids into 1.2950 stalled the initial move lower but these will soon succumb to any increase in selling volume. Stops are noted below with the 1.2925 area the next stalling point.Technically, the move lower needs to clear 1.2915 if the downside is to take hold. The 1.2865-85 support zone looks key to any USD break higher with the 2007low currently helped by the 1% MA band base.

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