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Friday, February 16, 2007

Swiss Outlook (16th February 2007)

Into European trading and the pair has worked steadily higher as speculative accounts squared shorts and the general Dollar bid tone impacted. Robust Swiss retail sales were overlooked as the pair broke above 1.2365. 1.2380 has printed thus far but more sellers trail to 1.2390/2400.

Elsewhere, a decent order in GBP/CHF is reported to have been worked by a notable German name but as they depressed the Sterling cross back from 2.4133 to 2.4065 a lumpy 1.6210 bid in EUR/CHF emerged to offset any longer-term knock-on. The Sterling order is linked to further buying back of the CHF on carry trade unwinding. However, GBP/CHF steadied around 2.4080 as EUR/CHF nudged higher. US data will drive USD/CHF volatility into North American trading.

Offers into 1.2390/2400 will again look to protect 1.24+ stops with the downside opening should 1.2280 yield. US PPI and Housing Starts are due at 13:30 GMT. Both January numbers will need to support the Dollar if further sales are to be negated with a fall of 0.5% M/M currently expected. The core headline is forecast up 0.2% with a lesser reading likely to hurt the US unit.

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