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Monday, February 19, 2007

Swiss Outlook (19th February 2007)

Robust Swiss retail sales were initially overlooked as USD/CHF opened at 1.2365 in New York, ahead of a slew of US economic data releases. The data releases were all disappointing; PPI was lower than expected, CPI was revised lower, housing starts were dreadful and U Mich fell below expectations.

Despite this USD/CHF at 11.00AM New York time was still holding at 1.2360, with relatively no change in the crosses. A late GBP/CHF sell order, accompanied by a CHF/JPY buy order, a black box fund trading off European closes hit the market and finally gravity took over. USD/CHF dropped to a low of 1.233, however heavy bids from tech traders using the 50% Fibo of 1.2110/1.2575 stalled the decline. USD/CHF closed at 1.2340 after trading a 1.2335/85 range.

Most of the Swiss crosses opened and closed with in 10-15 pips of the starting position with the exception of GBP/CHF and CHF/JPY. GBP/CHF opened at 2.4115, got belted down to 2.4060 and closed at 2.4075; CHF/JPY opened near 96.45, surged to 96.70 and closed at 96.65. Traders are flattening positions to core ahead of the US holiday Monday, and Chinese New Year.

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