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Friday, February 23, 2007

Swiss Outlook (23rd February 2007)

The Swiss Franc has had a mixed Friday so far with CHF/JPY recording a new eight year high of 98.21 and EUR/CHF also holding close to an eight-year high. The end result for USD/CHF has been fairly tight price action. Swiss accounts remain, on balance, buyers of the Swissy and have reportedly held the line in USD/CHF at 1.2410.

Further offers out of Europe, including a large German order, are rumoured to run from 1.2415 through 1.2430. On the buy side the Dollar has found friends in US players and the bounce from the London low at 1.2383-86 is blamed on a reasonable bid from a US investment name.

The "carry trade" continues to provide a useful handle to hang the Swiss weakness on and going forward into the new week the low yield environment is likely to keep the Swiss and Japanese units on the defensive. With the Swiss National Bank in no apparent rush to intensify rate increases we could see the EUR cross crack the 1.6300 level and extend its bull run, which started in December 2004.

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