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Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Sterling Outlook (21st February 2007)

The pound came under selling pressure following the 09:30GMT publication of minutes from the February 7/8 MPC meeting, with cable tumbling by more than half-a-cent to a low of 1.9488. CTA demand had helped inflate GBP/USD to a 6-day high of 1.9591 in early European trade. Sterling bids are tipped at 1.9480 (yesterday's low). Lower prop points include 1.9466 (last Friday's floor), 1.9430 and 1.9400.

Intra-week lows just shy of 1.9430 were notched on Monday. One-month lows just shy of 1.9400 were plumbed eight days ago (Feb 13). Large stops are touted below 1.9390. 1.9520 is now a rebound resistance level. Highs just shy of 1.9520 were notched after the 11:00GMT disclosure that February's CBI manufacturing orders book balance leapt to a 12-year high of +4.

Minus 8 was forecast. Upper obstacles include 1.9550 and 1.9600. US January inflation data is due at 13:30GMT. Headline CPI forecast: +0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y. Core CPI forecast: +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y. January 30/31 FOMC meeting minutes will be published at 19:00GMT.

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