The fall in February Swiss ZEW to -17.3 failed to grip the markets in European trading as dealers looked to the broader Dollar outlook to generate market momentum. Offers around 1.2400 capped USD/CHF and the stops above 1.2410 failed to be triggered in the wake of the poor sentiment reading.
Swiss names see a break above 1.2420 as an intraday trigger towards 1.2475/80 but we look for 1.2350/2450 to be worked with Swiss name demand at the lows. Looking ahead, in the wake of the Bernanke inflation comments US raw data will attain even greater significance. Import and Export numbers for January are set for release at 13:30 GMT with economists currently opting for a -1.0% M/M (import) and +0.3% M/M (export) consensus.
Also set for release are weekly jobless numbers and the February NY Empire State Survey (forecast at 10.00 Vs the previous 9.13 in Jan). December Capital inflow data is then eyed at 14:00 GMT but unless the US has struggled to fund the higher USD72.5Bln deficit the fundamental story will remain price pressures. Bernanke is set to speak again at 15:00 GMT but his rhetoric is widely expected to echo his recent sentiment.
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