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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Euro Outlook (13th February 2007)

Into North American trading and EUR/USD is steady around the 1.30 mark. The price failed to find follow-through on the initial push and some are said to have been caught in the move but longs may not yet be worried as further stabs higher are expected. Euro zone 4Q GDP was +0.9% Q/Q andthis "above-trend growth" has forced some to look for March and June ECB hikes.

Looking ahead, a raft of US numbers is set for release into the North American session with December Trade numbers kicking off the morning at 13:30 GMT. Economists look for a USD 59.5Bln deficit, many may be anaesthetized to the hugenumbers involved but a drop below USD 60Bln will see the Dollar dented once more. Following this Philly Fed and Consumer confidence data is set for release at 15:00 GMT with an OECD news conference also on the diary.

On the options front, the EUR 300Mln+ 1.3000 strike that is due to roll off at the NY cut at 15:00 GMT should act as a pivot point for any chop with offers from 1.3020 backing to 1.3040 while stops sit below 1.2980 with more bids noted into the 1.2950 area.

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