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Monday, February 19, 2007

Yen Outlook (19th February 2007)

USD/JPY and the JPY crosses were mixed in the European morning session. USD/JPY traded on a supportive footing after finding good support from the 119.35 area from importers and Japanese retail investors. European names pushed the pair up to 119.60. There was a small period of consolidation before the pair challenged large size 119.80 offers.

Good size cross-JPY selling limited USD/JPY to a 119.73 high. Interest went through GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. A sharp correction in the value of GBP was the catalyst for the move and GBP/JPY fell from 233.40 down to 232.20. EUR/JPY was also corrective in the wake of the GBP/JPY losses. The 157.35 resistance capped and the pair traded back into the 157.00 region.

In general there was limited directional bias, with interest limited ahead of the BOJ meeting which starts tomorrow. The market is still 50-50 on whether there will be a move, although Asian sources are erring towards a hike. Some suggest that the market is already discounting a hike to a degree after last week's pick-up in JPY. In the near-term, USD/JPY should hold a 119.00-120.00 range.

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