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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Swiss Outlook (13th February 2007)

The Franc has followed the trends set by the broader market intraday. USD/CHF followed the tone set by EUR/USD while GBP/CHF was impacted by the weaker UK numbers. Bids into 1.2460 in USD/CHF look to prop.

Looking ahead, a raft of US numbers is set for release into the North American session with December Trade numbers kicking off the morning at 13:30 GMT. Economists look for a USD 59.5Bln deficit, many may be anaesthetized to huge numbers but a drop below USD 60Bln will see the Dollar dented once more. Following this Philly Fed and consumer confidence data is set for release at 15:00 GMT with an OECD news conference also on the diary.

Local players expect the Franc to continue to trade in synch with broader marketmomentum (and to a lesser extent - Dollar momentum) until after the Swiss data set for release Thursday. Swiss inflation is expected near Zero so retail sales will give the next big indication as to the direction of interest rates in Q1. These are expected to come in at -2.5%, pointing to lower consumer spending, however, many still opt to price in a 25bp hike from the SNB in mid-March.

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