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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Sterling Outlook (28th November 2006)

Cable soared to within a tenth-of-a-cent of yesterday's 23-month peak of 1.9470 from today's European open. Tripped stops above 1.9405 (today's Asian session top) aided the ascent, as did GBP demand on the crosses. Scottish Power's backing for a GBP 11.6bn takeover offer from Spain's Iberdrola (BBC website) helped weigh on EUR/GBP to intra-week lows just shy of noted bids at 0.6755.

Lots of GBP/JPY buying was also noted. GBP/USD offers are touted at 1.9470. Further sell interest is expected to emerge into 1.9500, inclusive of option-related orders re: a 1.9500 exotic barrier. This is the peak trigger of a Double No Touch option carrying an estimated GBP 3mn payout. The DNT is slated to expire next May.

1.9405 is now a pullback support point. Lower props include 1.9394 (yesterday's NY session top), 1.9369 (today's Asian session base), and 1.9350. US October durable goods orders will be disclosed at 13:30GMT, with November's US consumer confidence gauge ensuing at 15:00GMT. Forecast: 106.0. US October existing home sales are also due at 15:00GMT.

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