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Friday, November 24, 2006

Yen Outlook (24th November 2006)

Heavy dollar selling was the leading influence. European interbank names immediately pressurised the dollar downside. USD/JPY easily filled in 116.20 bids, with a French, Swiss and UK name in the frame as the pair pushed through 116.00/115.85 options. Brief support came from Japanese names but was unable to stop further losses as aggressive stop loss buying via EUR/USD forced USD/JPY down to 115.65.

Japanese names were the only notable buyers on dips, with a trust bank, securities house and a couple of clearers working interest for importers and retails investors. Options activity increased as the pair traded lower, with defensive bids seen ahead of 115.50 positions, along with general gamma activity. EUR/JPY surged as EUR/USD led action. Japanese name support in USD/JPY saw EUR/USD as the main influence on the cross and the pair managed to clear 150.80 and 151.20 stops.

A 151.62 high was noted before turning lower, with selling noted by exporters, model funds and real money names. Focus is expected to remain on the USD/JPY downside, with US traders returning from their Thanksgiving holiday, although liquidity will remain thin though.

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