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Thursday, November 30, 2006

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

[Gold] has rolled to Feb futures. The market had set a weekly range of less than $10 through yesterday but with today's big gains has expanded it to $15. A bearish divergence setup that formed this month on daily momentum studies will be knocked out with continued gains. Trendline support from Nov 13-17 floors held perfectly at today's low print. Trend Intensity sideticked yesterday but will easily advance today. Major daily resistance is at $655-56, weekly trendlines at $653.20 mark today's top but are just being exceeded. Monthly resistance matches dailies at $655.50 but will shift upwards come tomorrow. $660 should be a target past the mid-$655 region.

[Oil] is terminating bearish weekly trend signals and is on the road to at least challenging the same on monthly time frames come December. Projected hurdles in the new month are just past $63.10, near current prices. Jan futures are back above 50-day moving averages for the first time since breaking below on August 15. The market's ability to hold monthly pivot and trendline supports at $57.60-90 on the just-after-mid-November test was an encouraging sign for bulls following months of declines. The recent advance now finds intraday supports quite close by in the $62.70-90 region. Weekly and monthly targets are in the $64.50-65.00 band on further gains.

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