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Wednesday, February 14, 2007

GBP/USD: Consolidating Gains pre-US Retail Sales

Cable is consolidating gains from yesterday's post-UK CPI one-month low just shy of 1.9400 as the market awaits the looming 13:30GMT disclosure of US January retail sales figures.

Forecast: +0.3% m/m, ex-autos +0.4% m/m. Highs just shy of 1.9570 were notched during the London morning, following the 10:30GMT publication of a BoE inflation report which was less dovish than the market was expecting.

Good size stops are touted above 1.9570. These could boost GBP/USD towards 1.9600 if tripped. Sterling support points include 1.9538 (pre-BoE inflation report high), 1.9510 (former stop-loss level), 1.9495 (today's Asian session peak), and 1.9455 (today's Asian session base).

Today's key US event risk is Ben Bernanke's semi-annual monetary policy testimony (part one), from 15:00GMT. The Fed Governor is expected to strike a broadly hawkish tone.

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