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Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Swiss Outlook (20th February 2007)

Into European trading Swiss data was in focus with the initial trade release supporting the Franc. However, the soft CPI numbers soon saw the CHF sold across the board, -0.2% M/M and +2.2% Y/Y. USD/CHF broke above 1.2350 and stops tripped en route to 1.2382. More offers are seen into 1.2400.

Looking ahead, US inflation data, due Wednesday, is still eagerly awaited as the US rate outlook remains the driving force for longer-term directional plays. Intraday, however, only the 13:30 GMT release of January Chicago Fed Activity data is eyed. The index read 0.04 at the previous release. USD/CHF dips target the 1.2300/15 area with stops still tipped sub-1.2285 technical support.

Elsewhere, the Franc continues to feel the pressure on the crosses, with EUR/CHF bought in the wake of the soft Swiss CPI numbers. The price is back within striking distance of the all-time high at 1.6289 (1.6265 the current intraday high) with option barriers into 1.63 seen as a viable short-term targets. Continue to watch GBP/CHF but this cross has only appreciated since the bounce off 2.3980/4000.

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