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Thursday, February 22, 2007

Swiss Outlook (22nd February 2007)

The legacy of Wednesday's US inflation data was a factor early in the session and USD/CHF spiked from the top of a shallow Asian bull run at 1.2394 to 1.2434. There was talk of stops being tripped at 1.2415 and 1.2420 and these look to have accelerated the Dollar push. Swiss Q4 employment data showed the strongest rise in five-years with non-farm payrolls rising 1.6% on the year to 3.7 mln in the fourth quarter.

The data looks to have helped stall the Dollar's advance at 1.2434 and price action has been moving sideways between 1.2420 and 1.2435. Technically the Dollar pair is a buy as the 10-day moving average gives way at 1.2410 and a challenge is made on the 21-day line at 1.2440. Swiss names have been seen on the offer but trading conditions have been thin and lacking in depth.

EUR/CHF continues to put pressure on the 1.63 level although the cross has not bettered Wednesday's 1.6289, multi-year highs. Again the charts are against the Swissy and a break above 1.63 is looked for. Good bids are expected to surface in the 1.6245-55 area on any corrective pullbacks.

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