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Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Euro Outlook (1st November 2006)

The various European public holidays, all marking All Saints Day, did little to help the Euro sustain the gains from yesterday into European morning trading. However, with the US Dollar largely treading water ahead of the key US ISM, later today (15:00 GMT), and the Employment Report set for the end of the week, the US unit has been equally hampered.

As a result EUR/USD has thus far generated few fresh flows of any real significance as orders build above 1.2785 (with many in the 1.2805/10 area) and below the sub-1.2735 stops, tipped to be the 1.2720/25 region. Looking ahead, dealers may be factoring in a slightly better US ISM reading, 53.0 the consensus from the 52.9 pvs.

However, with Pending Housing (September) data also set for release at 15:00 GMT, and expected to disappoint (108.1 vs 110.1 pvs), the Dollar is tipped to remain on the defensive into the North American session and beyond. Elsewhere, option dealers note 1.2700 & 1.2800 option strikes set to expire at the 15:00 GMT NY options cut-off.

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