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Thursday, February 01, 2007

Euro Outlook (1st February 2007)

Late Asian trading saw spot work lower as the option related sales contained the post-FOMC strength to 1.3042. The offers are said to trail back to 1.3050 and are linked to the topside trigger of the 1.2850/3050 DNT that will expires soon (both NY cut at 15:00 GMT & Tokyo cut at 06:00 GMT tomorrow are rumoured). The pair eased lower in Europe as cross sales added pressure. However, talk of central bank buy interest into 1.2990 dissuaded aggressive sellers and momentum soon waned. Thus reinforcing the 1.3000/50 band.

Looking ahead, more US data is set for release intraday. This could increase the volatile nature of spot in the short-run with the deluge kicking off at 12:30 GMT. Challenger job cut numbers will be followed by the 13:30 GMT release of weekly jobless & December personal income&speding data. Attention then turns to the 15:00 GMT brace of Dec pending home sales and Jan ISM. Only a break outside 1.3000/50 will add momentum with topside stops reported around 1.3055 before the next layer of sellers while 1.2970/75 is seen as a significant downside technical trigger.

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