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Monday, February 05, 2007

Euro Outlook (5th February 2007)

European trading saw the Asian sell-off work spot back to1.2930. EUR/JPY sales on the FT article on pre-G7 Yen wariness weighed but this was soon offset by the European buying on whispers of an upbeat Euro Zone data release. Trading bounced and spot began to absorb the supply from 1.2960 to 1.2970 but the stops around 75 remained intact as post-PMI profit-taking impacted.

The EZ data beat expectations by a whole figure but the Euro failed tomake further gains and sellers into strength remained to depress spot back towards the 1.2930 area. Official buyers are noted into the 1.2915/20 area whilemore bids are seen into 1.2900 with stops below. More offers 1.2985 & 1.3000. Looking ahead, US data is set for release at 15:00 GMT. January Non Manf. ISM data is the key short-term event-risk for USD/CHF and economists currently opt for a 57.0 reading.

Risk is skewed on the downside after the soft manf. data so a weak headline will place the topside stops in jeopardy.On the downside, 1.2900/05 is seen as both key support and a technical trigger so watch for a break below here.

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