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Monday, February 05, 2007

EUR/USD: Erosion Slowing; In Central Bank's Sweet Spot

EUR/USD made a tentative probe at the 1.2920 level not long again, but dealers are reluctant to push too hard to the downside, mindful of weeks of central bank buy interest in the 1.2875/1.2925 region since early in January. The important 100-day moving average has risen to 1.2903 today and bears watching.

Cross pressures are the main drag on EUR/USD today as EUR/JPY looks likely to be a keen topic of discussion at the upcoming G7 meeting whether or not any mention of it is made in the communique. Upbeat Eurozone service sector PMI is being given short-shrift this morning with the market awaiting guidance from Trichet on Thursday.

US non-manufacturing ISM is the highlight this morning, seen dipping to 57.0 from 57.1 in December. Offers start at 1.2940 in EUR/USD whole bids are seen scattered down to 1.2900 near-term.

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