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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Swiss Outlook (6th February 2007)

The Franc has been bought back once more in European morning trading and EUR/CHF sales are reported to have weighed on USD/CHF. The cross running stops on the drop below 1.6120 helped depress the Dollar pair below 1.2450 and 1.2400 is now eyed by bears as EUR/CHF eyes a run at 1.6100.

However, dealers note downside strikes that may limit/stall further weakness.Looking ahead, a North American session of rhetoric is eyed with Paulson, Moskow& Bernanke all set to speak. Weekly Redbook retail numbers are set for release at 13:55 GMT but the attention will then turn to the Paulson testimony in Washington (15:00 GMT). Following this, Moskow is set to speak in Chicago after 18:00 GMT with the key-note Bernanke address due around 18:30 GMT. Domestic dealers still look to Swiss data.

Swiss CPI is due on Thursday (06:45 GMT) and economists now look for a January reading of -0.3% on month with +0.5% eyed on the year. A monthly decline into the New Year will confirm the current picture of a benign inflation outlook but will not dampen the prospect of further SNB rate hikes in Q1 & Q2.

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