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Saturday, February 10, 2007

Swiss Outlook (9th February 2007)

Into European trading and the Franc was again sold as cash & carry traders failed to take heed of the pre-G7 risk. USD/CHF worked higher in tandem with the broader US unit strength and offers into 1.2490/2500 were found to limit the initial run higher. However, these were soon absorbed and spot broke higher and consolidated in the low 1.25's. Offers are noted 1.2520/25 with stops tight above and more above 1.2540.

[GBP/CHF] selling from UK Clearers, Swiss names and funds was initially tipped as unwinding of carry trades but dealers then U-turned to settle on M&A flows as the cause. Trading dropped from 2.4450 to 2.4318 but has since steadied and is now looking to bounce.

[EUR/CHF] traded at fresh historic highs in Asian trading but the GBP/CHF sales weighed in Europe. The pair dropped to 1.6235 before fresh supportemerged. On the topside, 1.6300 option barriers are still targeted by bulls.Looking ahead, G7 dominates the event-risk profile but ahead of the Essen meeting and the market must navigate past a bunch of Poole and Pianalto commentsand the weekly US ECRI numbers.

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