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Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Euro Outlook (20th March 2007)

Into early North American trading and the stops seen in EUR/USD below 1.3275 remain pressured but for the moment spot is holding in the low 1.3280's. EUR/GBP sales, in the wake of the UK numbers, have weighed but EUR/USD has struggled to garner any momentum of its own thus far.

However, it may be 1.3265 that is the more significant downside trigger intraday. In other news, the front-runner for the French presidential race, Sarkozy, has launched another attack on the ECB head, Tichet, after what he claims is a "radical policy shift" as the central bank attempts to battle inflation "that no longer exists". The news itself does not come as a shock but with ECB rates potentially set to rise further we are looking for political discontent to grow.

According to the latest M&A data, the Euro was the clear winner over the last week. With Imperial Tobacco Group's bid for Altadis and Schering-Plough looking to buy Organon Biotechnics inflows could be as high as USD 39.55Bln. Sterling was the worst performer with a net outflow of USD 16.33Bln.

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