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Thursday, March 22, 2007

Swiss Outlook (22nd March 2007)

US investment grade supply into the 1.21 area was absorbed amid slight European morning Dollar correction. As a result into North American trading and USD/CHF finds itself making stabs towards the 50% Fibo of the sell-off from 1.2167 to 1.2077 at 1.2122. Offers are seen into 1.2120/25 but technical accounts look to the 61.8% Fibo of the above move at 1.2133 as a more significant trigger.

Looking ahead, Bernanke comments are set to kick-off the North American session (13:20 GMT) followed by the 14:00 GMT unveiling of US Leading Indicators. The attention will turn to the 16:30 brace of Lacker and Kroszner before FOMC Vice-Chairman Kohn speaks in Washington at 17:30 GMT.

Domestic dealers look to the speech from the SNB's Jordan on the direction of Swiss rates. However, with a further 25bps priced in for Q2 there is little light the central bank designated member may shed on the future path to normalization. On the options front, further 1.2140 strikes are set to mature at the NY cut at 14:00 GMT.

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