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Friday, March 23, 2007

Sterling Outlook (23rd March 2007)

1.9690 offers kept a lid on cable following its early Europe break through the peak of today's 1.9627-1.9651 Asian session range. The rate's subsequent slide to two-day lows just shy of 1.9600 bids was blamed on Eastern European sales of GBP/JPY. Some GBP/USD sell-stops are tipped below 1.9600. Further demand is noted at 1.9580 and 1.9550/55.

Gain consolidation from 1.9218 (March 14 low) is the big-picture sterling story, with the risk of another 25bp UK base rate hike to 5.5% as early as next month (Apr 5) helping underpin. Wednesday's more dovish-than-expected FOMC statement is also a GBP/USD prop. Further sell interest is noted up at 1.9725/30, 1.9740 and 1.9750. Buy stops are pegged above 1.9750.

EUR/GBP plumbed a nine-day low of 0.6768 during the European morning, on the back of dovish comments from outgoing ECB member Gaspari (Bloomberg). Today's key US event risk is the 14:00GMT disclosure of February new home sales. Forecast: 6.30 million, down 2.5%. The Fed's Lacker, Plosser and Geithner are all slated to speak today.

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