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Monday, March 26, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

Apr [gold] has erased Friday's losses, the occurrence of which did not disturb the longer-term bullish picture derived from uptrend lines dating back to early October of last year. Retracement targets at $670 remain an objective, though weekly chart resistance comes in just before that at $666-68.

Bullish trend models on weeklies and monthlies keep the market on an upward focus. Weekly swing point support is at $652.50 for a second consecutive week, and a level bulls need to see held by week's end. Intraday supports are at $660-62 Apr.

In [oil], today's advance has moved back up towards recent highs, just missing weekly resistance to either side of $63.55 May and under Mar peaks at $63.75. Trend Intensity will finally trigger bullishly today if modest gains are maintained into the close.

That does not guarantee a range breakout, and keep in mind that only aily trend models will be bullish at the close, with weeklies neutral and monthlies technically bearish until Friday. Daily momentum readings are slightly positive, but RSI does show a bullish downtrend break. With the higher low on daily charts, next big targets are at $65 May.

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