Aside from modest penetrations at the end of last week, [gold] has not ventured much past 38% retracements of range measured from Feb 27 peaks to Mar 6 floors at $656.70. Daily RSI studies have broken the downtrend formed in the wake of recent selling, and are sticking more to bull market parameters (40-80) than those seen during bear markets (20-60). Daily momentum readings, negative since Mar 5, bottomed out last Friday, unable to make much headway on the downside.
Absent a sizable bounce, weekly trends turn bearish come Friday but monthlies are fence sitting near $652, the level that will determine whether bullish trends on that time frame are held. The higher low in place on the charts will run into resistance at $658-62. A better bounce than seen to date in this market is expected, but the late Feb sell off will not be quickly overcome.
In [oil], yesterday's break has not led to follow-through selling today, and lows set in mid-Feb have been avoided. Converging 40- and 50-day averages at $58.60 today held tests perfectly yesterday, one good sign. The exact center of range since Feb is at $59.80 Apr, the market's current price and a tough place from which to make a buy or sell decision. Having avoided a big break of multiple time frame supports in the $58.50-59.00 zone, daily resistance at $60.50 is a target.
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