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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

US TECHS: Commodities Outlook; Gold and Oil

The broad updraft in commodities has taken Apr [gold] right to its 62% retracement target at $670, with former weekly hurdles just below at $666-68 acting more as support. Next daily chart resistance is at $673-75, while weekly objectives are at $679.50-685.00.

Despite the big drop from late Feb, recent chart action has been quite favorable. Respect must be paid to the 62% test achieved today, that being the most important technical retracement level, so any stumble should be given heed but overall, chart structure is quite favorable. Intraday supports are very firm in the $663-65 band.

Bullish developments in [oil] certainly preceded the latest surge, with daily trends turning up days ago, and weeklies well on their way, just needing more time to confirm the shift. Prices are past their 200-day moving average at $64.35 May, and just below some important weekly hurdles at $65.20-25 and monthly targets just above at $65.65. Following yesterday afternoon's spike to just over $68, projected weekly resistance is now up at $67.80-68.80. For right now, intraday support is at $64.20-30.

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