Daily momentum readings in [gold] bottomed out on March 15 in modestly negative territory. With higher price lows set on March 14 as compared to the March 6 floor, the market has approached 50% retracements at $663.50 Apr. 62% measures are at $670.
Given the severity of the late February decline, a brush with neutral momentum readings could accompany tests of the 62% rebound in a few days, at which point a better read of the market's recovery attempts should be possible. While the bigger picture looks good for gold, an immediate resumption of the larger advance is probably not going to occur as the market consolidates from its sizable break. 40-day moving averages are nearby at $660.50.
In [oil], the recent bearish Trend Intensity signal (from last Friday) upticked again yesterday. Risk is that the trigger on weakness near the lower end of its two-month price range will have difficulty in attracting additional follow-through selling.
Daily bear trends are intact below $59.95 May, and weekly models are set to turn bearish at week's end below $61.55 May, joining long-bearish monthly trends, a powerful combination. In other words, bears have the strong benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise, despite nagging psychological doubts that floors are close by.
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