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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Sterling Outlook (13th March 2007)

Demand circa 1.9275 based cable's early Europe break below 1.9293 (today's Asian session floor), as the continent absorbed the 00:01GMT disclosure that February's RICS UK house price balance fell to a nine-month low of 24. Further bids are tipped into 1.9250, with some stops touted under 1.9250. 1.9252 was yesterday's six-day low (plumbed during the NY morning).

GBP/USD pushed its recovery envelope from its early Europe lows to highs just shy of 1.9320 after the 09:30GMT unveiling of January's below-forecast UK trade deficit. 1.9331 was today's Asian session top. 1.9434 was yesterday's one-week peak (scaled late in the European morning).

News-wise: KKR is considering whether to raise its bid for Alliance Boots, following yesterday's rejection of the US-based private equity firm's GBP 9.7bn takeover approach, according to The Times. Today's key US event risk is the 12:30GMT disclosure of February retail sales. Forecast: +0.3% m/m, ex-autos +0.3% m/m. UK unemployment and earnings data will be published at 09:30GMT tomorrow.

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