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Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Euro Outlook (28th March 2007)

Intraday and dealers note further 1.3300, 25 and 1.3350 option expiries at the NY cut-off (14:00 GMT). As a result, if spot continues to trade inside its rough short-term 1.3310/65 comfort-zone then no matter where the price sits prior to these expiries there could be a pull from the options market.

That said, 1.3400 and 1.3450 are still seen as key levels on the topside, despite the presence of 1.3250/3450 DNT exotic options. Into European trading and the latest failure ahead of 1.3360 opened the downside. Spot soon worked lower and mixed Euro Zone data did little to boost the hopes of a Euro bounce. Stops in the low 1.3320's continue to be targeted but talk of central bank and option related buyers into 1.3315 and 1.3300 respectively keeps the downside protected for the moment.

Looking ahead, US Durable Goods are set for release at 12:30 GMT but the North American session could the tale of the two central banks with both Bernanke and Trichet set to speak. The FOMC Chairman takes the floor first at 14:30 GMT with Trichet set to follow around 14:30 GMT.

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