Today's key event risk is the 13:30GMT publication of February's US employment report. The market appears bias towards a disappointing NFP number re: Wednesday's weak 57k ADP number, so an unexpectedly strong figure may possess the most market-moving potential. NFP consensus forecast: 95k. The size of January's US trade deficit will also be revealed at 13:30GMT.
Forecast: $59.8bn, from $61.2bn. The US unemployment rate is forecast at 4.6%. GBP/USD plumbed a two-day low of 1.9270 in a knee-jerk reaction to the 09:30GMT disclosure of January's sub-forecast UK industrial and manufacturing production data. Demand at 1.9275/80 propped cable into the data. Highs just shy of 1.9318 have been notched on the recovery from 1.9270. 1.9318 was yesterday's rebound top from a post-BoE rate verdict low of 1.9277.
Upper resistance levels include 1.9339 (today's Asian session top), 1.9352 (yesterday's pre-BoE rate verdict peak), and 1.9359 (Wednesday's high). Another EUR/GBP 0.6800 option strike rolls off at today's 10am EST NY cut, after prior 0.6800 expiries yesterday and Tuesday.
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