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Friday, March 09, 2007

Swiss Outlook (9th March 2007)

The Dollar has been little moved ahead of the US Employment numbers (due at 13:30 GMT) despite the slight pick-up in global risk appetite. Economists look for a 100K headline, down from the 110K previous. Fresh carry implications have not boosted the US unit either and as a result some suggest the USD will remain range-bound until it sees the next batch of fundamentals fully pan out.

According to the latest reading of the UBS Risk Index, aversion has fallen to 0.44 from 0.46 yesterday. The research note also suggests this has been reflected "in a rebound AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF" price. Bids in USD/CHF into 1.2250/55 have propped the pair into European morning trading while sellers remained camped ahead of the 1.2290/2300 level.

However, should the US unit be boosted into North American trading and a 1.2300/05 break will eye 1.2315/35 before a full retracement back to 1.2437 (the February 22nd daily high) is eyed. Also set for release at 13:30 GMT is the US January Trade data (a deficit of around USD 59.5Bln forecast) with the attention then turning to the various Fed speakers set to comment after the European close.

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