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Friday, March 09, 2007

Yen Outlook (9th March 2007)

USD/JPY and the JPY crosses remained steady in the European morning. USD/JPY traded up, moving through 117.50 option triggers to print a 117.67 high. Exporter and speculative name offers at 117.65/70 weighed on the pair and consolidation around 117.45/50 was noted for the remainder of the session. EUR/JPY moved higher but was unable to overcome 154.70 offers and pulled back in tandem with USD/JPY.

Other JPY pairs were similarly bid with NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY both performing well as Japanese retail investor demand was noted via the high yielders. Attention is now on the US non-farm payroll release. Expectations revolve around a rise of 95-100K. The market looks to be leaning towards a weaker number. If the number proves to be as expected or stronger, USD/JPY could get a boost, shoring up sentiment in other JPY pairs.

A clean break through 117.65/70 would see exporter offers at 117.80/00 come into play. EUR/JPY will need to overcome offers at 154.70 and over 155.00, with good size option triggers noted in the latter. Elsewhere, strikes at 117.25 could influence USD/JPY, while EUR/JPY open interest is noted at 153.50 and 154.00.

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