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Monday, March 12, 2007

Sterling Outlook (12th March 2007)

Cable rallied by half-a-cent to new one-week highs just shy of 1.9435 following the 09:30GMT disclosure of February's UK producer price data. The stronger-than-expected numbers are good news for UK rate hawks forecasting another 25bp base rate hike to 5.5% either next month or in May. Bull targets north of 1.9435 include 1.9448 (last Monday's high), 1.9460, and 1.9487.

The latter level is a 61.8% Fibo retracement point of the fall from 1.9674 (Feb 27 high) to 1.9185 (last Monday's 15-week low). 1.9398 (pre-UK PPI peak) is now a pullback support point. Lower props include 1.9380 (today's Asian session top), 1.9359, 1.9343, and 1.9322.

News-wise: the Boots board is meeting to decide whether to open up its books to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, following Friday's GBP 9.7bn takeover approach from the US-based private equity group (BBC website). The IoD is urging UK Chancellor Gordon Brown to cut UK corporation tax from 30% to 28% in his 10th and final budget next week (March 21). Brown is expected to succeed Tony Blair as PM this summer.

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