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Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Euro Outlook (7th November 2006)

Disappointment has been the theme since the European entrance to the fray, as Euro Zone and other assorted European data weighed on the EUR. Yet with the Dollar being hampered by the up-and-coming US Mid-Term elections the USD has looked in no position to take advantage of the poor set of economic unveilings.

EUR/USD has built a short-run range-base at 1.2750 with bids trailing to 1.2745 to help contain stabs lower, while on the topside the offers into 1.2770/75 capped spot near its longer-term trend resistance. Above protection of the 1.2800 option barriers remains on the books with option dealers also noting 1.2800 expiries intraday, at the NY cut-off (15:00 GMT), that should help weigh should the price rally later in the day.

Elsewhere, a report issued by a German notes that in the week prior to publication the Euro remained "most vulnerable" to potential M&A outflow, with USD 4.7Bn following on from the previous USD 11Bn the week before. Yet the Dollar continues to clock up a steady flow into the country with the report notes an M&A inflow of USD 5.39Bn during the same period.

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