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Thursday, November 09, 2006

Euro Outlook (9th November 2006)

Into European trading and the Dollar has been kept on the defensive but dealers remain wary over a potential US unit rebound. US Trade data, due at 13:30 GMT, continues to produce spurious speculation ahead of the release. The latest of these being a fresh record number will be seen but these contrast to the earlier talk of a much improved reading.

As a result the consensus USD 66Bn stands as just one of a number of forecasts doing the rounds. Into the data and position adjusting is set to continue with dealers talking of a break outside the 1.2750/2830 band the only way longer-term interest will be instigated. Also set for release is the October Import/Export data. Technically, the price continues to flirt with longer-term resistance and a close above 1.2669 intraday is required to cement the bullish bias in the short-term.

Looking ahead, a weekly close above 1.2776 & a monthly finish at, or above, 1.2787 are tipped to keep the focus on the topside in the longer-term. Elsewhere, 1.2750, 1.2775, 1.2800 & 1.2850 option expiries today at the NY cut (15:00 GMT) pepper the current price.

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