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Monday, November 13, 2006

Sterling Outlook (13th November 2006)

Cable tripped stops below 1.9100, en route to a low of 1.9055, following the 09:30GMT disclosure of softer-than-expected UK October producer output prices. PPI has led out a busy week for UK data, inclusive of tomorrow's unveiling of October inflation numbers, Wednesday's release of unemployment and earnings statistics, and Thursday's October retail sales figures.

Annualized CPI is forecast to rise from 2.4% in September. This week's key UK event risk is Wednesday's publication of the quarterly BoE inflation report. This will provide fresh guidance re: UK monetary policy in the wake of the perception that last Thursday's rate hike-accompanying BoE MPC statement was less hawkish than August's UK rate hike-accompanying statement.

Some stops reportedly below 1.9050. Bear targets south of this level include 1.9000, and 1.8976 (last Thursday's post-UK rate verdict low). 1.9075 and 1.9100 are now rebound resistance levels. Upper obstacles include 1.9153 (today's Asian session high), and 1.9180 (Friday's 19-month peak). An exotic option barrier resides at 1.9200.

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