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Friday, November 17, 2006

Sterling Outlook (17th November 2006)

Cable remains on the back-foot, having revisited Wednesday's 20-day low of 1.8838 in early European trade. Some stops are tipped below 1.8830. These could spur fresh downward pressure towards 1.8800/10 if hit. A UK clearer put out a sell recommendation earlier this week--ahead of the release of the less hawkish-than-expected BoE inflation report, targeting 1.8410.

Interim objectives include 1.8770, a 61.8% Fibo retracement point of the ascent from 1.8520 (last month's low) to last Friday's 19-month high of 1.9180. GBP/USD resistance levels reside at 1.8870 (yesterday's NY session base), 1.8888 (today's Asian session top), 1.8900, 1.28920, 1.8935 (yesterday's post-US CPI high), 1.8950, and 1.8969 (Wednesday's pre-UK U/E & earnings data peak). EUR/GBP offers are touted from 0.6785 back to 0.6795. Seven-week highs just shy of 0.6795 were notched yesterday, pre-strong UK retail sales.

US October housing starts and building permits will be disclosed at 13:30GMT. Housing starts forecast: 1.68mn. Building permits forecast: 1.63mn. Pianalto is slated to speak at 13:45GMT.

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