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Thursday, November 02, 2006

Sterling Outlook (2nd November 2006)

Sell interest circa 1.9100 helped cap cable's rally from early Europe lows just shy of 1.9030. Those lows were plumbed on the back of some profit-taking on long positions. 1.9059-1.9090 was today's Asia range. 1.9120 (yesterday's late NY high), 1.9137 (yesterday's 12-week peak), and 1.9146 (August 8, 16-month top) are resistance levels north of 1.9100.

There is speculation that exotic option barriers reside at 1.9150 and 1.9200. 1.9200 option strikes expire at the 10am NY cuts today and tomorrow. Helping underpin the pound is the expectation that the BoE MPC will hike the UK base rate by 25bp to 5.0% a week today (November 9).

News-wise: the telecoms arm of Russia's Alfa Group is understood to be seeking to buy a GBP 15bn stake in Vodafone, according to The Times. Smith & Nephew, meanwhile, is in merger talks with US company Biomet (FT website). US Q3 productivity and unit labor costs will be revealed at 13:30GMT, alongside weekly jobless claims. September factory orders ensue at 15:00GMT. October NFP are due tomorrow. Forecast: 125k.

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