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Thursday, November 16, 2006

Swiss Outlook (16th NOvember 2006)

US CPI data is seen as the big event-risk into the North American session (13:30 GMT). With the FOMC showing yesterday that the Fed is waiting for fresh data, the market is doing likewise before considering altering their 2007 projections. Economists look for a -0.3% M/M headline with core seen up 0.2%. Also set for release is the weekly data before Pianalto speaks in Ohio.

Later in the day September inflow data and the industrial production release for October are due at 14:00 GMT & 14:15 GMT respectively. Offers into 1.25 protect a return to the 1.2525 failed high from yesterday. Domestically, Swiss investor confidence plummeted in November with the ZEW index fall to -21.3. However, with the index coming from a previous -14.1 headline the data is seen as highlighting the worries over an economic slowdown into H1 2007.

On a more positive note the current conditions index continued to stabilize in the 90's with the latest reading printing 93.4 from the previous 94.7. The data is unlikely to alter the view that the SNB will hike target LIBOR bands by a further 25bps at their Q4 meeting in December.

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