US ECON: Data on Tap - Claims, Productivity/ULC, Factory Orders

[Jobless Claims (Oct 28)]
IFR expects initial claims to rise 2k to 310k for the week of October 28. In the prior week, claims rose 8k to 308k. The 4-week average slid lower by 2.8k to 305.25k, however, the lowest since the week of February 25(301.5k).

Continuing claims for the week ended October 14 inched higher by 3k to 2.449 mln, the highest level since the week of September 9 (2.452 mln). The 4-week average rose 3.9k to 2.440 mln. The insured jobless rate remained at 1.9%. This week's continuing claims data were for the same period as the October payroll survey week and suggest a likely hold on the unemployment rate at 4.6%. In September, the rate dropped to 4.6% from 4.7%.

[Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Q3)]
IFR expects productivity to rise by 0.8% in the third quarter, down from 1.6% in the second and 4.3% in the first. Output should be roughly 1.6% (according to GDP) and hours of all persons should have risen by about 0.8% according to the monthly employment reports.

Unit labor costs should moderate further after surging at an 8.7% annual rate in Q1 and a 4.9% annual rate in Q2. The year-ago rise in Q2 unit labor costs (5.0%) was the highest since the third quarter of 2000. The implicit price deflator should fall to just over 2%, the lowest since Q4'03. Long-term growth in productivity is trending lower.

[Factory Orders (Sep)]
IFR expects a 0.4% gain in nondurable goods to push total factory orders higher by 4.2% in September. Nondurable goods orders have risen an average 0.7% per month over the last four months and an average 0.4% over the last 12 months. From March to July, the average gain was 1.1%.

Durable goods orders surged by 7.8% last month, the most in more than six years. Net of transportation equipment, however, the gain was just 0.1% and that followed decreases of 0.1% and 1.5% in July and August, respectively. As with durable goods, factory shipments should fall by their most in nearly four years but unfilled factory orders should rise by their most in more than six years. Orders for nondefense capital goods less aircraft have accelerated in the last two months but the 7-month moving average is steady at just under 0.9%.