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Thursday, February 01, 2007

Sterling Outlook (1st February 2007)

Tripped stops above 1.9671 (yesterday's post-FOMC peak) helped cable push its recovery envelope from yesterday's 19-day low of 1.9483 to a fresh peak of 1.9684 late in the London morning. Corporate sell interest is touted at 1.9700--three pips above Tuesday's five-day high notched on the back of good size GBP/JPY buying.

Helping underpin the pound is January's much better-than-expected UK manufacturing sector PMI. This rose to 52.8, from an upwardly revised 52.0 in December, against a forecast deterioration to 51.7. The strong number is good news for UK rate hawks variously touting another 25bp base rate hike to 5.5% next week/next month/in April/in May. 1.9671 is now a pullback support point.

Lower props include 1.9655 (today's Asian session top), 1.9623 (early Europe intra-day low), 1.9600, and 1.9550. A batch of US data is due at 13:30GMT, inclusive of December's core PCE deflator. Forecast: +2.3% y/y, from 2.2% previously. January's ISM manufacturing index ensues at 15:00GMT. Forecast: 51.8.

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