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Thursday, February 01, 2007

Swiss Outlook (1st February 2007)

The Franc has overlooked mixed domestic data intraday as dealers remain wary over the Roth speech. Sales in USD/CHF into 1.2460 capped the early European correction and the price has since drifted lower. Bids into 1.2425 still prop the downside but better size demand is seen at 1.2400.

On the topside more sellers are seen into 1.2475/80 with talk of stops now above 1.25. The downside in EUR/CHF has continued to be pressured intraday with medium-term targets now eyeing 1.6060 should the move lower continue. Stops in the cross were triggered in the break under 1.6200 and 1.6188 has printed thus far. One Swiss bank has again reaffirmed their belief that the cross will be at 1.60 at the end of Q1 & 1.58 in Q2.

The SNB's Roth is due to speak later today (after 14:00 GMT) on central bank policy and the housing market but many are wary that his rhetoric will hold a more hawkish tone. A 25bps hike in Q1 is widely expected but some are already talking up the 50bp Q1 potential so any such tone will give credence to this argument and give the Franc another boost.

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