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Thursday, March 01, 2007

Swiss Outlook (1st March 2007)

Into North American trading and USD/CHF is pivoting the 1.22 mark as spot looks to draw its next short-term directional bias from the up-and-coming US numbers. Should the Dollar be further depressed by the data then 1.2175/80 will come back into sight with 1.2145 then eyed as the current range-base.

First up the 13:30 GMT release of Income and Personal Spending numbers is eyed before the release of the latest ISM numbers at 15:00 GMT. Should the Dollar strength on better than expected numbers then offers are noted into 1.2220 with better size seen into 1.2245/50. On the topside, Swiss names see only a break above 1.2300 as a clear contra-trend move at present. Elsewhere, Swiss domestic data confirmed the duel SNB hike scenario today as February PMI beat expectations to surge to 63.5.

The index had been expected to rally from 62.0 to 63.0 but in the wake of the solid UBS consumption numbers and the robust KoF Leading Indicator the topside was in focus. Economists now look for a 25bp hike from Roth and Co. at the Q1 meeting (mid-March) and again at the Q2 meeting in June.

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