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Friday, March 02, 2007

Swiss Outlook (2nd March 2007)

Ahead of the North American open and spot failed to find significant follow-through in the break of 1.2250 and as a result the intraday high at 1.2260 was not held. 1.2225/50 now looks to keep the pair in check. According to one German name USD/CHF is expected to move sideways, however, the name in question suggests "if there is a risk then there it is most definitely skewed to the upside".

In the short-term the pair has held above its key support of 1.2110-1.2140 and a run at 1.2270/90 resistance cannot be discounted. Profit-taking related sales from speculative accounts are still noted in the 70/75 area while bids into 1.2200 will look to prop should the Dollar weaken into North American trading.

On the crosses, one Swiss name sees the path of EUR/CHF as "equity driven". They suggest that market sentiment often impacts the Franc and recent EUR/CHF volatility can be linked to international sentiment. As a result, the name in question looks to stock futures for signals over the next path for the pair.

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