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Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Swiss Outlook (7th November 2006)

Into European trading and the publication of the October Swiss Unemployment data halted the USD/CHF run lower. Ahead of the US Mid-Term elections, later today, the US unit was sold in Asia but domestic players were found on the bid into 1.2495/2500 over the data.

Swiss Jobless was unchanged at 3.1% to spur the belief that the Alpine Economy is hitting its peak into Q4 2006. In the wake of the number USD/CHF bounced but the failure to beak and hold in the 1.2530's has kept the downside in focus. Into North American trading and with the event-risk calendar bare USD/CHF is likely to continue to build orders either side of 1.2495-1.2535 until the fundamental picture alters.

Dealers see a break above 1.2540 as a bull-trigger with stops above 1.2550 expected to fuel a retracement towards the failure high from yesterday at 1.2579. Elsewhere, EUR/CHF hit another 6-Year+ high as 1.5990 printed but still the highs remain unsustainable as offers to the 1.60 option barriers cap.

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