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Thursday, December 14, 2006

Euro Outlook (14th December 2006)

Option strikes at 1.3200 & 1.3250 have been noted every day so far this week. Today is no exception but it is the larger 1.3290 digital expiry that dominated early mutterings as the EUR 15Mln payout kept many wary that spot could be forced higher later in the day (into the NY cut at 15:00 GMT).

However, it was the 1.3200's that were in focus into the North American open as spot looked to break lower. Stops were removed in the push below 1.3190 (1.3182 the low) but large buying from Hong Kong & other reserve interest has stalled any deeper sell-off. As a result the price is now consolidating around 1.3190/95 with London dealers seeing 1.3130 support as key to the downside. Looking ahead, Import & Export numbers from the US form the early North American event-risk.

The November index is expected to produce a flat import figure on the month with exports set to increase by +0.2% M/M. Weekly jobs data is also set for release at 13:30 GMT, however, at present the increased short- term demand for the US unit is said to have been generated from the oil price rally from the OPEC cut & the futures market investigation.

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