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Thursday, December 21, 2006

Sterling Outlook (21st December 2006)

The 3rd and final US Q3 GDP estimate is due at 13:30GMT. Annualized growth forecast: 2.2%. US weekly jobless claims are also due at 13:30GMT. Forecast: 315k. December's Philly Fed survey ensues at 17:00GMT. GBP/USD ascended to intra-day highs just shy of 1.9700 in early European trade, ahead of the 09:30GMT release of mixed UK GDP and current account data.

The unexpected upward revision of annualized Q3 GDP to 2.9% is further good news for UK rate hawks touting a 25bp base rate rise to 5.25% in February, and a further 25bp hike beyond. By contrast, the Q3 C/A deficit blow-out to GBP 9.429bn, from an upwardly revised GBP 8.264bn in Q2, is GBP-negative. Cable dropped to an intra-day low of 1.9638 late in the European morning, with another bout of pre-Xmas profit-booking on long GBP/USD positions blamed.

A prior bout of pre-Xmas profit-booking helped depress sterling to a low of 1.9618 yesterday. Bids are tipped at 1.9630, with further demand noted at 1.9600. News-wise: Vodafone's board is set to meet to consider a proposed $13.5bn+ offer for India's Hutchison Essar (FT website).

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